The situation in Europe is starting to worry me now; Boris Johnson has today declared that the second wave has begun in Europe. Now while I think that is slightly hasty wording, personally, I am worried by the recent spikes in countries like Spain, and other countries like France, Belgium and Germany are also seeing increasing levels of new cases.
While it doesn’t look too concerning at the moment on the face of it (even though Spain’s cases per 100,000 is more than double that of Britain’s, France’s is equal to Britain’s and Germany’s is almost 50% lower than Britain’s), cases in mainland Europe seem to be surging at the moment, and I fear that that could reach the UK in a week or two’s time. I’m starting to get scared that we could imminently be back to square one like we were in March/April, triggering huge national lockdowns once again.
Am I right to be fearful, or am I being too hasty and pessimistic?
Matt, you are spot on that we all need to be cautious, we all need to be conscious and keep up the good hand hygiene, social distancing and mask wearing. We must not be complacent, but we are in this for the long run. We could still be living with this level of the virus for months or years to come, no one knows at this point, so we must all try to resume some of our normal routines whilst taking the necessary precautions to keep ourselves safe.
Just because Boris Johnson declares something doesn't mean that it's factually correct.
If we take Germany, yes they have seen a rise in the 7 day average, but not at one point has their 7 day average per capita risen above ours, so Boris Johnson pointing at them saying they are starting a second wave is just pointing the finger to make it look like they are handling it worse than us. We have so many tools we didn't have at the beginning of the outbreak along with better treatments, and Germany has strict mask enforcement and good testing and contact tracing which can prevent the situation getting out of control. If there's one country im least worried about, it's Germany. If Germany goes down, the rest of Europe goes down with them. But their numbers are far from a second wave and they've been holding these numbers for 2.5 months now, remember that.
Spain has seen a sharp increase, but its nothing that can't be put back under control. Mandatory masks at all times in Spains capital will help them stop the spread. It is a measure other countries are looking at too, and whilst it isn't nice to have to wear masks at all times leaving your house, if it stops the virus then necessary measures must be taken. Spain's numbers have increased but it's not exponential. An exponential increase is when we should be worried.
Italy, greece, France, Netherlands, UK, are all still doing ok. All of these countries have more powers than we did at the beginning of the outbreak, testing, contact tracing apps, masks can be implemented and removed at any times. Look at Austria for example, masks were compulsory back in April, they then removed the mask rule and have now reintroduced it again. Masks are a powerful tool which can stop viral transmission.
If you see an exponential spike in cases in the UK, I recommend one thing, take it upon yourself to take action. Don't wait for the leaders to say its time to stay at home, because by then it could be too late. Do what you think is right, what you think is sensible and what you can do to protect yourself and those around you.
Cases are increasing in Europe at the moment, but its not exponential, and therefore we don't need to worry about a second wave until we see an exponential increase. Just because a politician declares a second wave, doesn't mean it will happen, its important to follow the science here not the politics.
At the end of the day international travel is what causes this increase in cases, so if you want to keep yourself safe I would advise to limit international travel or to travel to lower risk destinations based on cases per capita. You can follow all the statistics on
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries . This will help you to see where it is under control and where the virus is more in circulation. It can give a good idea of where has the most control over the virus with the best measures and where is starting to see an exponential increase. The UK is seeing a slow but gradual increase in cases, no difference to Netherlands, Poland, Germany and France. Spain saw an increase which isn't exponential, and therefore can hopefully be contained via masks, contact tracing and self isolation.
So to conclude, we aren't seeing a second wave, but it's not to say a second wave couldn't happen at any point, its completely possible, but im sure most governments will do everything in their power to stop a second wave so they don't crash the economy and allow thousands more to die. Best to keep up to date on the numbers, keep acting sensibly and follow social distancing and mask wearing guidelines to keep yourself and your family safe!
