Coronavirus: Impact on Theme Parks
- Thread starter JammyH
- Start date
I read somewhere this morning that the latest official's advice is that the UK lockdown will probably end around the end of May, however could be the middle of June depending on whether people actually stick to the rules. There were a lot of people out yesterday sunbathing, in parks and on the beach, and out having bbqs with friends which means as a country we are likely to be in lockdown for longer. I went on my walk last night and there was even a gang of teenagers who had met up and seemed to be dealing out something suspicious..
Therefore, even if foreign parks are able to open up parks before the end of May, it doesn't look like anyone is going to be going anywhere for quite a while still, so I wouldn't advise trying to book anything for before (mid) June.
Even when the lockdown is lifted, bear in mind there will still be restrictions to every day life, however the situation in other countries may be better meaning their parks may have been able to reopen even if ours haven't.
Therefore, even if foreign parks are able to open up parks before the end of May, it doesn't look like anyone is going to be going anywhere for quite a while still, so I wouldn't advise trying to book anything for before (mid) June.
Even when the lockdown is lifted, bear in mind there will still be restrictions to every day life, however the situation in other countries may be better meaning their parks may have been able to reopen even if ours haven't.
Matt N
CF Legend
According to an article in the Telegraph, Merlin is now trying to seek extra cash from the government as part of their business support program.
Also, I was thinking; is it possible that if companies suffer due to this, could we see some new parks built, or existing ones expand massively and "rise from the ashes", if you like? Obviously, this won't happen quickly, but in the long term, could we see this happen as the economy gradually recovers?
Also, I was thinking; is it possible that if companies suffer due to this, could we see some new parks built, or existing ones expand massively and "rise from the ashes", if you like? Obviously, this won't happen quickly, but in the long term, could we see this happen as the economy gradually recovers?
I'm not entirely sure you understand how recessions work. The drop off is fast, the climb back is gradual. If parks (and by extension, investors in parks) are haemorrhaging profit, they don't have the money to invest next year (or next-next year). It's not a matter of "look this has all blown over and people want parks again", they've lost a big chunk of money which will take time to re-save.
Maybe it could happen if a somewhat profitable but debt-ridden park collapsed in the crisis, the owners and investors had to eat the loss, and the park was sold wholesale to a visionary with a better credit rating. The new owner wouldn't be buried under the same mountain of debt that prevented the previous owners from expanding. Maybe expansion wouldn't be the first item on the agenda, but a few years down the line, perhaps...
That's probably not going to happen in many places, mind.
Matt N
CF Legend
Maybe this could happen in the situation of parks that were struggling pre-coronavirus? Such as the likes of the Six Flags chain? If they went bankrupt, surely it would be better to have a new owner take over than to see all of their parks demolished and replaced with housing estates?
Basically, I think that the impact on the parks long-term will depend on the length of the recession and the severity of the recession. I think the coronavirus recession looks like it could be quite severe, but I'm not predicting it will be too long, as unlike previous recessions, this one was caused by businesses and industry being temporarily closed, so surely the reopening of businesses and industry will go some way towards fixing the problem? I know that the impacts of this will linger in some form for years to come, but surely having things open and cash flowing in again will help to start fixing some of the damage? Most economists predict that the economy will have returned to growth by 2021, and some are even predicting it could return to growth by Q4 of 2020.
rob666
Hyper Poster
Nope, sorry Matt, optimism overload again!
We were heading into a world recession (partly) because of China/Usa tariff grief, before the bloody virus.
Shares were already overvalued.
Massive uncertainty in the markets.
Fears of a lengthy depression caused by a wholesale stocks crash.
Failure to comlete brexit this year on top.
A million redundancies in the service industries.
No real new investment for a decade.
Cant see it any other way.
Many people wont be able to afford basics and rent for years.
This will hit the coaster industry hard, and long.
We were heading into a world recession (partly) because of China/Usa tariff grief, before the bloody virus.
Shares were already overvalued.
Massive uncertainty in the markets.
Fears of a lengthy depression caused by a wholesale stocks crash.
Failure to comlete brexit this year on top.
A million redundancies in the service industries.
No real new investment for a decade.
Cant see it any other way.
Many people wont be able to afford basics and rent for years.
This will hit the coaster industry hard, and long.
Matt N
CF Legend
I did actually see an article just now about the predicted financial impact of the coronavirus in the long term, and these people predict that it will be less than that of the 2008 financial crisis. I'd recommend taking a read: https://www.morningstar.com/article...mpact-forecast-to-be-less-than-2008-recession
I know that the article mainly talks about the USA, but I think quite a few of the points are applicable to other countries too. As for how current it is, it was only posted 2 days ago, so it's pretty up to date.
So my basic point is; I currently predict that coronavirus will cause a big hit in the short to mid term, but the industry should recover in the long term. 2020 will not be a good year for our industry, and in a worst case scenario, 2021 might not be very good either. But I think the theme park industry should have bounced back to its former momentum by 2022 or 2023, maybe by 2025 in a worst case scenario. All of the economic predictions I've seen seem to suggest that the economy will have returned to growth by 2021 at the latest, and even countering in the long term social impacts, I think the world's general financial situation should have returned to a manageable level by 2025 at the very worst, probably more like 2022-2023. By this point, I think people's finances will probably have recovered to an extent where money is being spent on theme park outings in big numbers again, therefore meaning that parks are getting hefty cash flow again.
This period we're going through now will not be great for the economy, but most economic predictions I read think that threats of a multi-year depression on a level we've never seen before are slightly overstated.
I know that the article mainly talks about the USA, but I think quite a few of the points are applicable to other countries too. As for how current it is, it was only posted 2 days ago, so it's pretty up to date.
So my basic point is; I currently predict that coronavirus will cause a big hit in the short to mid term, but the industry should recover in the long term. 2020 will not be a good year for our industry, and in a worst case scenario, 2021 might not be very good either. But I think the theme park industry should have bounced back to its former momentum by 2022 or 2023, maybe by 2025 in a worst case scenario. All of the economic predictions I've seen seem to suggest that the economy will have returned to growth by 2021 at the latest, and even countering in the long term social impacts, I think the world's general financial situation should have returned to a manageable level by 2025 at the very worst, probably more like 2022-2023. By this point, I think people's finances will probably have recovered to an extent where money is being spent on theme park outings in big numbers again, therefore meaning that parks are getting hefty cash flow again.
This period we're going through now will not be great for the economy, but most economic predictions I read think that threats of a multi-year depression on a level we've never seen before are slightly overstated.
Those following shelter in place orders in the states: Ohio has extended our shelter in place to May 1. No word yet from Cedar Point and Kings Island on how this impacts their mid-May hopes, but wouldn’t be surprised to see it pushed back a minimum of a few weeks.
Also, Tivoli Gardens has announced they’re opening May 1, and extending their season into October to make up for lost time.
Also, Tivoli Gardens has announced they’re opening May 1, and extending their season into October to make up for lost time.
Even if lockdown will end in May/June it will not be return to normal from one day to another. I spoke to my neighbor who is working as a member of the red cross crisis team and he assumes the following:
- first stores will re-open, but with social distancing enforced - masks and 1 costumer per 10 sq meters
- sport clubs, fitness studios and swimming pools will re-open next - but for sports only, no sunny day at the pool with friends and family, food vendors will remain closed
- I asked about themeparks: He thinks no restaurants, outside food with social distancing, virtual queueing with app for rides only, no indoor rides, no shows
- spectator sports without spectators, no concerts, no fairs, no conventions - until there is a vaccine
- travel: will be highly limited until there is a vaccine, likely you need a proof of vaccination inside your vaccination pass if you want to enter EU, USa, Canada,...
- first stores will re-open, but with social distancing enforced - masks and 1 costumer per 10 sq meters
- sport clubs, fitness studios and swimming pools will re-open next - but for sports only, no sunny day at the pool with friends and family, food vendors will remain closed
- I asked about themeparks: He thinks no restaurants, outside food with social distancing, virtual queueing with app for rides only, no indoor rides, no shows
- spectator sports without spectators, no concerts, no fairs, no conventions - until there is a vaccine
- travel: will be highly limited until there is a vaccine, likely you need a proof of vaccination inside your vaccination pass if you want to enter EU, USa, Canada,...
/\ That sounds worryingly intense given a vaccine sounds way off. I hope that isn't the case.
I had to cancel my wedding this past Saturday and rearranged it to February 2021, so if vaccines are needed for travel then I'm screwed (in laws live in France).
Regarding theme parks that sounds quite unviable.
I had to cancel my wedding this past Saturday and rearranged it to February 2021, so if vaccines are needed for travel then I'm screwed (in laws live in France).
Regarding theme parks that sounds quite unviable.
cookie
Giga Poster
No operating times listed though, which makes me wonder what the plan is.
We just don’t know what the situation will be like, it’s important to take things day by day. I’m personally not planning anything in the future really until life can go back to normal, and I’m slowly getting into the mindset that it might not be until a vaccine is readily available, which could be a year from now.
I have a relative who works for the NHS and she says the one glimmer of hope for the next few months is if we can find a treatment. The coronavirus is the virus going around and for some who experience more serious symptoms, this causes the disease COVID 19. If researchers can find an effective treatment for this disease to significantly reduce the amount of people going into critical condition and dying, then it may be possible for life to go back to normal sooner than anticipated. In the US they are currently testing putting plasma from those previously infected into those currently infected to see if one persons antibodies can help another person fight the virus. If something like this is successful, it’s possible the world could return to normal sooner than 6 months- a years time. Otherwise, if reliable antibody tests are developed, it’s possible those only with “immunisation passports” are going to be the ones permitted to travel anywhere. It’s highly possible that most of us won’t have the “summer holiday” we are used to this year.
As for the parks, I agree with the restrictions that have been mentioned above are going to be necessary if the parks are going to be allowed to operate. We’ve already seen in Japan the need for visitors to wear masks and only alternate rows of the coasters being loaded. I think it’s also going to be necessary for indoor shows to be closed and any other indoor attractions with poor ventilation potentially axed as the virus can spread faster in poorly ventilated areas than well ventilated areas.
I also wonder what this means for waterparks and whether they will be able to operate or not, perhaps on a severely restricted capacity like the theme parks.
JoshC.
Strata Poster
Seen virtual queueing banded around a few times in this thread now, and frankly, no. Virtual queueing is not the answer for theme parks, regardless of what the question even is.
In the situation of social distancing, virtual queueing would probably do more harm than good. Instead of putting people in an ordered line where you can clearly mark (say) 2m distances, you're putting people in pathways where they can go wherever and however they please. I'm sure people have seen it in supermarkets already: you have the orderly queue outside, but inside, people move closer to each other to get products, get around the shop, etc, and you simply don't end up constantly maintaining that 2m distance. Put those people in a theme park which is meant to be enjoyable and people are excited, being in pathways is the worst.
The reality of the situation is is that we won't see a return to "normality" any time soon. There's not going to be a magic day where everything is fixed. When restrictions ease, people are still going to be fearful and questioning every decision that's made. I personally think the decision of some Japanese theme parks to reopen when they did is way too soon, and their operational procedures are ridiculous. Theme parks should offer a realm of escapism, which frankly isn't possible in current conditions. I want to go to a theme park and have fun, not be forced into a temperature check, wear a mask and be secluded from everything at all times. Even the 'immune passport' idea feels a bit crap before entering a park in my opinion.
In the situation of social distancing, virtual queueing would probably do more harm than good. Instead of putting people in an ordered line where you can clearly mark (say) 2m distances, you're putting people in pathways where they can go wherever and however they please. I'm sure people have seen it in supermarkets already: you have the orderly queue outside, but inside, people move closer to each other to get products, get around the shop, etc, and you simply don't end up constantly maintaining that 2m distance. Put those people in a theme park which is meant to be enjoyable and people are excited, being in pathways is the worst.
The reality of the situation is is that we won't see a return to "normality" any time soon. There's not going to be a magic day where everything is fixed. When restrictions ease, people are still going to be fearful and questioning every decision that's made. I personally think the decision of some Japanese theme parks to reopen when they did is way too soon, and their operational procedures are ridiculous. Theme parks should offer a realm of escapism, which frankly isn't possible in current conditions. I want to go to a theme park and have fun, not be forced into a temperature check, wear a mask and be secluded from everything at all times. Even the 'immune passport' idea feels a bit crap before entering a park in my opinion.
UP87
Mega Poster
The problem with the "immune passport" is that it might bring back corona parties in the worst possible way as people might want to get infected to get an immune passport to be able to get into theme parks, travel or anything. I think something like that would only become viable after vaccine is widely available.
Matt N
CF Legend
Interestingly, Germany has now drawn up plans that it thinks will keep the R0 value to below 1, but still see the lockdown end on 19th April: https://apple.news/AXiFdiTaoQSORCdRBF74MwA
And Austria is also planning to start loosening its measures:https://apple.news/AbCkJOm3cQ3yBM4YYjJjRHg
With cases in Italy growing at their slowest rate since 19th March and deaths in Spain slowing for the 4th day in a row alongside these two pieces of news, could we be seeing the light at the end of the tunnel to some extent?
And Austria is also planning to start loosening its measures:https://apple.news/AbCkJOm3cQ3yBM4YYjJjRHg
With cases in Italy growing at their slowest rate since 19th March and deaths in Spain slowing for the 4th day in a row alongside these two pieces of news, could we be seeing the light at the end of the tunnel to some extent?
Lockdowns are only a way to slow the spread of the virus, not to stop it spreading altogether. We are looking at at least 6 months before we even start to think about getting back to normal.
UK lockdown will most likely end about the end of May, and then if you read above the first stage will be to open non essential shops with strict measures in place, followed by things like swimming pools and gyms for athletes, also with strict measures in place. A lot of countries are now adopting the policy that you can only go outside if you wear a face mask as well.
This virus is only just getting started and UK has only been in lockdown for two weeks, we’ve got a long way to go before we see any “light at the end of the tunnel”. And in terms of for the theme parks, as mentioned above IF the theme parks are able to open, it will only be with severe restrictions in place for example:
Limited park capacities
No poorly ventilated indoor attractions, shows or areas open.
No VR attractions
Social distancing measures in place.
Measures such as people may only eat at every other table in restaurants, or perhaps takeout only.
Perhaps PPE must be required into parks such as masks or rubber gloves.
I agree but it’s also about keeping businesses afloat. If parks can either not open at all or open with severe restrictions and regulations in place, I imagine the latter option will be adopted. They need to keep their parks running and make a return so that the parks can afford to survive. We have to keep the economy going around to some extent whilst maintaining health & safety.
It might not be anyone’s idea of ideal fun, but I’m sure a lot of people would rather have the opportunity to visit theme parks, but have to wear PPE and follow social distancing rules than be cramped up in their houses for another 6 months with nothing to do at all.
Unfortunately the parks cannot just open up and continue as they normally would, because in the current situation that would not be safe for staff or for guests.