Wonder how that could be policed in Disneyland. They couldn't even stop a fight in Toontown.
I think such a ban is almost impossible for so long.
Coronavirus: Impact on Theme Parks
- Thread starter JammyH
- Start date
I think such a ban is almost impossible for so long.
Youngster Joey
Strata Poster
They won't police it. Depending on the exact wording of the ban the most likely option is they won't be able to open Disneyland until the ban is over.
This would cost Disney billions if that were the case till 2021. I just can't see it happening.
Netflix today became a bigger company than Disney. Astonishing.
Nicky Borrill
Strata Poster
Your sums match up with mine.
There are 2 known ways of reducing, and eventually preventing the spread of this virus. Social distancing, which is / could be just temporary, once measures are lifted, it could return. Or heard immunity, either via vaccine or natural immunity through previous infection. A much longer term solution, but unfortunately the natural route means a large amount of deaths in the short term. So... a combination of both is what I believe many countries, including the UK, have opted for.
Just a little bit on ‘heard immunity.’ It is true that herd immunity itself cannot be achieved until we reach 60% infected, as any level lower than this is not called herd immunity. However, a reduction in transmission rates or R0 (reproductive rates) as it is known can be achieved with lower percentages.
Essentially, to reach full herd immunity, that R0, the number of new people an infected person passes the disease onto, needs to reach 1.0 or lower. At present, without any intervention, the R0 is said to be around 2.25. So every person with covid will infect a further 2.25 people. If 60% of the people that person meets are already immune, that rate comes down to around 0.9. This means instead of the infection rates growing, they will shrink, essentially eliminating the virus.
If, as these studies predict, a minimum of 25% are eventually immune at the end of our first wave. That R0 comes down to around 1.6875... Couple that with basic social distancing and common sense measures, hand hygiene, indoor spacing, possibly even masks, and that R0 will be even lower... Maybe even lower than R0 1.0 slowing the spread and eventually eliminating the virus. Because all the while, with each new case, immunity levels are rising.
Ultimately, whilst the loss of life, and pain, that this causes is heart breaking, and some countries appear to have (for now) avoided that. In the long run, those countries with the higher infection rates will come out of this in a stronger position, and will need less draconian measures in place moving forward.
The negative here for the UK is that we just don’t bloody know for sure how many people have been infected!!!! We only have study based estimates, not data confirmed by testing... This is because we only have antigen tests, which show who is currently infected, and our capacity for that is shocking... We need antibody tests now, which test for immunity, indicating a previous infection, and we need to TEST TEST TEST!!!
Just an average idiot’s understanding of the situation
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Now back on topic... I found it odd that, in many places, theme parks were not initially closed down as bans on mass gatherings were put into place. I presume it’s due to the space involved. At concerts and sports events you sit / stand, within less than 0.5M of several people for an extended period of time, often indoors. Whereas theoretically, at a theme park, it can be better managed.
Youngster Joey
Strata Poster
Yes it would. However depending on how California chooses to handle this pandemic they may not have a choice in the matter. The governor of Florida on the other hand seems much more likely to allow WDW to open up sooner. It's just a matter of what the governors and states where these parks reside choose to do moving forward. All the parks obviously would like to re-open as soon as possible but that decision is out of their hands.
This morning they had the Chancellor's Minister on breakfast tv in Germany and he said that the main reasoning behind all actions right now is to aviod large crowds inside cities - thats why major department or electronic stores remain closed. While not mentioned I assume this also affects themparks - there can be no queues or filled midways. What was mentioned that the Aug 31st ban on events includes funfairs - but I also assume that themeparks will fall under the same.
The seoncd biggest funfair the Düsseldorf Rheinkirmes in mid-July is therefor cancelled. Also Oktoberfest normally starts construction also in mid-July - at the moment I think there is a high chance this will be cancelled, too. On themeparks honestly at the moment I see them opening next year - assuming all make it that far without revenue.
Some parks who were always on the financial edge like Geiselwind or Belantis might close for good very soon...
It was also said that Restaurants, Bars, Clubs, etc. will remain closed for a long time.
The seoncd biggest funfair the Düsseldorf Rheinkirmes in mid-July is therefor cancelled. Also Oktoberfest normally starts construction also in mid-July - at the moment I think there is a high chance this will be cancelled, too. On themeparks honestly at the moment I see them opening next year - assuming all make it that far without revenue.
Some parks who were always on the financial edge like Geiselwind or Belantis might close for good very soon...
It was also said that Restaurants, Bars, Clubs, etc. will remain closed for a long time.
CSLKennyNI
Giga Poster
How funfairs and theme parks can be managed in terms of crowds, guest flow and spacing in queuelines is very different. For parks it all still up in the air - decision to be made if possible at the next lockdown review meeting on 30th April along with all other leisure facilities.
Europa Park off the back of the announcement of the gradual exit strategy yesterday have stated they remain closed until further notice awaiting the decision.
Europa Park off the back of the announcement of the gradual exit strategy yesterday have stated they remain closed until further notice awaiting the decision.
Nicky Borrill
Strata Poster
No... They were focused on businesses like mine, as we were the first to be closed, we’re deemed the highest risk, and will be the last to reopen because of this... Pubs, bars, restaurants and clubs... The help they’ve given us will be about enough for us to survive for 10 to 12 weeks. They expected a much shorter period of disruption for other sectors, and assumed larger businesses in these sectors would get by for those shorter periods with just the offer of loans and staff wages paid.
A lot of this seems to be focused on just more debt which I'd imagine isn't always a good thing.
Wonder also what the massive increase in UK banks' overdraft charges was about end of last year / beginning of this year. I never use it but noticed on one account my overdraft allowance decreased over a thousand pounds without much warning. Seemed as if they knew a storm was coming. I know some of that has been frozen etc but considering how much they were given for bailouts themselves their attitude during this just seems to be quite parasitic to me. I expect many businesses including some theme parks will not survive if this continues for months and banks will not help as much as they could.
In the end I wonder if it is going to be worth it because we are most likely going to have to have some form of exit strategy that just means we will have to live alongside this virus regardless. I agree with this flattening the curve stuff but at the same time the cost to so many lives mentally and physically is going to be monumental if we are talking months of lockdown.
I also don't like the monopoly that supermarkets have. I need to buy a new sheet for my bed. Why am I forced to either buy online, in a physical supermarket and cannot go to my local Dunelm Mill?
To me such a product is a necessity and supermarkets are wrongfully given a monopoly. My local Pets at home is managing social distancing fine by allowing only a handful of people in the shop and I suspect Dunelms could do something like that too. In The Netherlands I understand many shops are still open.
I suspect there will be 3 weeks of more lockdown announced today taking us to the day before the bank holiday VE day celebration on May 8th. If we have more lockdown for all shops etc after that I think people are going to get extremely frustrated. I think in May there should be some more flexibility for shops to reopen and other businesses following suit the months after.
Not sure it's worth schools even reopening before the summer holidays though.
Keeping everything closed to 2021 and thinking a new year will magically mean the virus is gone I reckon is wishful thinking and would thus somewhat pointlessly destroy so much that we have. I'm not so sure about this herd immunity stuff. If figures out of China are to believed they seem to claim to have eradicated the virus rather than that people are immune to it.
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CSLKennyNI
Giga Poster
Heide Park have also confirmed their closure until further notice awaiting the government's decision (as mentioned in the above post above Europa Park).
They are offering free rebookings of overnight stays for any date after 1st June (perhaps too optimistic but lets see...)
They are offering free rebookings of overnight stays for any date after 1st June (perhaps too optimistic but lets see...)
cookie
Giga Poster
Hansa Park has also said that they're waiting for clarification from the government and that any already purchased 2020 season passes will be valid for a number of days in 2021 comparable to how long they have to stay closed this year (so for example, if the park lost 90 days of operation this year, the pass would be valid for 90 days into the 2021 operating season).
Nicky Borrill
Strata Poster
Even I, the resident optimist, think that’s probably too soon, especially for the UK...
Wonder what parks will do about catering, bars etc if they are to open up before pubs and restaurants (who should be last) here in the UK. What were the ones that were still open after the restaurants closed in the UK doing before the lockdown? Did they close all bars and dine in options?
Wonder if the funfair industry will cope with all this considering many summer ones across the UK, Germany and Netherlands are already cancelled even right up to the end of August with ones later in the year already at risk. I don't go to them very often but thought Hoppings last year was superb. The Mach 5 booster was better than some coasters I've done and Ice jet was by far the best matterhorn. Far better than the one that was at Hyde Park Winter Wonderland, which was boring in comparison. Olympia Looping and Ice Mountain were excellent.
Hoppings has already been cancelled. Goose fair, Hull and winter wonderland continue planning and preparation full steam ahead for now.
Rule number one for figures out of China: don't believe figures out of China.
Nicky Borrill
Strata Poster
I’m on a self imposed ban from HPWW anyway... My head took about 4 days to recover last time, all those bars, the tipi bar, carousel bars, bar hutte, bavarian village... they’re all so much fun and far too tempting... Especially when you don’t usually drink ??
You do highlight a good point though, many large events that are way off have been cancelled already, not because they think the event cannot legally go ahead, but because they take months of planning and construction which can’t take place... The perfect example is Glastonbury. Wonder if any of these huge fairs around sept / oct will fall victim to that.
Well indeed, I do not believe it all unless they literally shot 10s of thousands of people in the second half of February or had a magic cure they are not sharing with the world.
