Testing is so important so that infection chains can be caught amidst their tracks and stopped before they spiral out of control. This is what we "claimed" to be doing back in February whereas in reality we couldn't trace back to patient zero because we couldn't perform any tests, whereas in Germany thousands and thousands of tests a day were being conducted, so they could trace back to those infected individuals and stop infection chains growing at an even faster rate.
The issue is in the UK now, maybe we are doing 80k tests a day, so 500k tests a week. Great. We need to test test test. But what we don't know is if the government are actually using that data in a proactive way. At this point, with a reproductive rate less than one, for one infected individual, everyone else in their household should be taking a test to see if they are also infected, symptomatic or asymptomatic. Then we can start to gather more data about how quickly the virus really spreads and what the real proportion of asymptomatic people is.
Testing is going to become a key part of the exit strategy to the current lockdown, but only if we use the data it provides right. Unfortunately, in my personal opinion, every decision the government has made so far has been incredibly wrong, so I'm not sure I particularly trust them to be able to use this data in the right way. If, along with a well planned exit strategy, we can test 700,000 people a week, catch those infections chains and reduce the curve of the second wave, then we have finally done something right.
I think the government needs to also turn attention to stepping up production of cloth face masks within the UK. As we have seen, it looks like Boris is going to thankfully U-turn on the advice given by SAGE that masks aren't of use and is hopefully going to tell us to wear them next week. I'm hoping he calls out for local manufacturing chains to start producing as many cloth facemasks as they can and distribute them throughout the local area. Similarly schools with design and technology departments could be called upon to start producing cloth masks for their local community. That way, we aren't taking away from PPE from frontline healthcare staff.
It's so important that moving forward over the next few weeks the reproductive rate is kept less than one. High volume testing and the right use of the data it provides is a key to this. PPE such as face masks and continued social distancing measures are also a key to this. Hopefully the government can get it right and we can flatten the curve of the second wave.
Of course, we don't already know how many people have antibodies and we don't know the level of immunity the antibodies provide to this virus. This is where antibody testing could have come in useful, so we know what the true scale of the outbreak has been in the UK. In Germany, 15% of the population seemingly have antibodies, so it will be a way higher amount here. If antibodies provide a high level immunity against re-contracting the virus, then the infection rate will dramatically drop in the UK naturally as so many people will have that immunity already.
