Coronavirus: Impact on Theme Parks

[Dar]

One of Boris's cronies already started the backtracking on the promise about that track and trace app as soon as PMQs was over today so I wouldn't put much faith in that being available in 2 weeks. Also I don't actually see how it helps that much - once you have the virus and start transmitting it to other people, how does knowing who those people are help when it may be 2 weeks later before symptoms are shown? ?‍

I think it's so you can tell those people to isolate themselves, and then the people they've been near, and so on all the way down to the bottom turtle. Plus, it will generate a lot of data that some nerds/scientists are going to find very interesting and helpful for modelling when the next pandemic comes along.

I can't wait to see the freedom of speech people get all up in arms when companies start exercising their free speech and stopping people without masks or, when it's available, a vaccination from going in.

 

[Nicky Borrill]

I think it's so you can tell those people to isolate themselves, and then the people they've been near, and so on all the way down to the bottom turtle. Plus, it will generate a lot of data that some nerds/scientists are going to find very interesting and helpful for modelling when the next pandemic comes along.

I can't wait to see the freedom of speech people get all up in arms when companies start exercising their free speech and stopping people without masks or, when it's available, a vaccination from going in.

As a business, we were genuinely hoping for a system like China’s health app system, so no entry unless you have a green pass.

We have considered whether to require the app anyway, for our teams protection (and their elderly relatives) At least if everyone in the pub is carrying the app, and one is later diagnosed, we would all be alerted, hopefully before going to see Granny. Not great for business, but what is most important right now?

I think @witchfinder concerns were that it takes 3 to 14 days to show symptoms, 1 to 3 days to get a test, and 1 to 3 days to get the results, it could be nearly 3 weeks before any contacts would know, by that time they’re probably showing symptoms themselves.

The whole process needs to get quicker, and the isolation notification needs to be instantly sent to contacts and all sub contacts at all levels through the app. Only being relaxed on receipt of a negative test result.

 

[BlueSonicHD]

And the good news continues
Once you have had rona you can’t get it again
☺

 

[Nicky Borrill]

And the good news continues
Once you have had rona you can’t get it again
☺

I read some analysis of a study quite a long time ago that said that although there were now several mutations, these genetic changes were tiny. And not a single mutation had any genetic changes to any part of the spike protein. It’s that spike protein that our antibodies need to recognise in order to fight the virus, as they block it from binding. Thus it was concluded, again quite a long time ago, that loss of immunity through mutation was unlikely to be a factor. I cannot find the study now.

This is great, if unsurprising, news. But I very much doubt that it will stop the WHO from making statements along the lines of “We do not yet know if people can develop immunity to the virus.” Nor will it stop the media and public from interpreting those statements as “It’s not thought that people develop immunity to the virus.” ??

Memory Lymphocytes too, long term immunity.... excellent news!!!

So now we need to get that bloody antibody testing done, and get the country unlocked... If at least 15% of the population aren’t immune, and causing a natural relative drop in the R0, I’ll read a copy of the Mirror and Sun front to back as a forfeit!!!

 

[witchfinder]

Whereabouts do you live if you don’t mind me asking (town not address, don’t worry ??)

I live on the edge of Stoke-on-Trent - closest recognisable town would be Longton or Meir if you know the area, though thankfully the area I live in is nicer than either of those places

And yes you were right, I was expressing cynicism about how useful a track and trace system is when it may be 2 weeks before anyone shows signs of infection and by then they've interacted with dozens of people who have then interacted with dozens of people and so on. Presumably a combination of the tracking app and continued social distancing is what will work best.

 

[Nicky Borrill]

I live on the edge of Stoke-on-Trent - closest recognisable town would be Longton or Meir if you know the area, though thankfully the area I live in is nicer than either of those places

And yes you were right, I was expressing cynicism about how useful a track and trace system is when it may be 2 weeks before anyone shows signs of infection and by then they've interacted with dozens of people who have then interacted with dozens of people and so on. Presumably a combination of the tracking app and continued social distancing is what will work best.

I recognise Longton from signage on route to Blackpool ? so I know roughly where it is.. I am the opposite side of Towers in Derbyshire.

The track and trace app is critical in my opinion, regardless of whether there are 25,000 or 100,000 human contact tracers, they cannot trigger instant notification in the same way an app can.

And the good news continues
Once you have had rona you can’t get it again
☺

I read some analysis of a study quite a long time ago that said that although there were now several mutations, these genetic changes were tiny. And not a single mutation had any genetic changes to any part of the spike protein. It’s that spike protein that our antibodies need to recognise in order to fight the virus, as they block it from binding. Thus it was concluded, again quite a long time ago, that loss of immunity through mutation was unlikely to be a factor. I cannot find the study now.

This is great, if unsurprising, news. But I very much doubt that it will stop the WHO from making statements along the lines of “We do not yet know if people can develop immunity to the virus.” Nor will it stop the media and public from interpreting those statements as “It’s not thought that people develop immunity to the virus.” ??

Memory Lymphocytes too, long term immunity.... excellent news!!!

So now we need to get that bloody antibody testing done, and get the country unlocked... If at least 15% of the population aren’t immune, and causing a natural relative drop in the R0, I’ll read a copy of the Mirror and Sun front to back as a forfeit!!!

And further studies offer yet more proof that antibodies present after infection are protective and offer immunity...

UP YOURS COVID

Reuters | Breaking International News & Views

Find latest news from every corner of the globe at Reuters.com, your online source for breaking international news coverage.

uk.reuters.com

 

[JammyH]

Two major funfairs, Bridgwater (september) and Hull fair (October) now cancelled.

I imagine not long before we hear a cancellation from Hyde Park winter wonderland unfortunately.

 

[Matt N]

They’re probably better off cancelling for 2020 now than trying to press ahead with things until the last minute, as no one really knows what will happen. It will be far easier for them to cancel now, as they won’t have things like ticket refunds to have to give out. They likely won’t even had paid for much to do with the 2020 event, so if they cancel now, they don’t lose out on much, and the consumer doesn’t lose out either as they won’t have paid for tickets.

I’m sure the fair season will come back with a bang in 2021!

 

[ECG]

So what's happening with VR attractions?
Hologate, one of the industries leaders, has put out safety guidelines.
What's important to note is that it's recommended that all of the headsets are retrofitted with PU leather facial inserts, which are more hygienic than the foam inserts that come with headsets. They also mention using UV-C and a partnership with Cleanbox Technology. UV-C is a proven sanitizing technology; however, it's hazardous if not used properly and can degrade certain materials overtime (like plastics).
HTC who manufacturers one of the more widely used headsets in entertainment centers (Vive Pro) also posted guidelines. The big thing to notice is that they state using UV technology on their headsets will void the warranty, as it is possible it can damage the lenses and degrade the plastic.
So while UV technology is great for hard surfaces (it's starting to be implemented on New York City subways and buses), it might not be the answer for VR gear if ride ops don't use it properly. The cost of a shortened equipment lifespan might be prohibitive to purchasing VR attractions for many parks. And how many guests are going to feel comfortable about wearing VR gear outside of their homes, regardless of cleaning practices, right now anyway?

 

[JammyH]

I’m sure the fair season will come back with a bang in 2021!

It's going to be a very difficult time for fair operators unfortunately. Fairs have compromised hygiene, often crowded and limited space and above all it is simply not profitable for the showmen to operate on limited capacity when pay-per ride is in place. It's a very different setting to theme parks where extra hygiene and social distancing measures can be implemented thoroughly.

Therefore, fairs simply cannot operate until social distancing is no longer a thing, which won’t be until we either reach herd immunity, find a treatment or have a vaccine. As we don’t know how long any of these things might take, I fear for the survival of the fairground industry as we know it.

Luckily for theme parks with ticketed entry, there is much more hope for survival as operations can be adjusted to match the requirements of the current climate

 

[Nicky Borrill]

At least 17% infected in London confirmed by the UK Government... And this will already be out of date, as the sampling goes back weeks!!!!

With an absolute minimum 5% in the least infected areas of the UK. Again rising every day.

Looks like I won’t have to read the Sun or Mirror after all... Phew ?

But more importantly, this is fantastic news as a nation, coupled with the rapidly emerging evidence supporting immunity, it means a significant natural reduction in the R0.

I personally think it’s likely to be higher still, and the announcement of mass antibody testing is another fantastic step towards confirming this.

EDIT: I am really trying to get hold of the study data, but can’t find it anywhere... If anybody finds it please share...

At the minute all we have to go on was what he said, and he indicated that the data breaks down the different levels in different regions... Which will be interesting, because London is no longer top of the UK ‘cases per capita’ table, and some areas below are catching up too.

 

[BlueSonicHD]

Sunetra Gupta, Professor of Theoretical Epidemiology at the University of Oxford and head of the team that released a study in March which speculated that as much as 50% of the population may already have been infected and the true Infection Fatality Rate could be as low as 0.1%. In her first major interview since the Oxford study was published, she goes further by arguing that Covid-19 has already passed through the population and is now on its way out

maybe all this social distancing will be a thing of the past by the end of the year , I really hope so

 

[Matthew Fair]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1263542174186008576

 

[Matt N]

Going back to the discussion from the other day about the Oxford vaccine, I think I may have identified why they’re pressing on with human trials; even though traces of the virus were found in the monkeys’ noses, the virus was not replicating, while it was in non-vaccinated monkeys. Therefore, it cannot spread if it doesn’t replicate.

Take a look at this article:https://apple.news/AzMgiLlznSFeairTOYzP7Jw

 

[Nicky Borrill]

Going back to the discussion from the other day about the Oxford vaccine, I think I may have identified why they’re pressing on with human trials; even though traces of the virus were found in the monkeys’ noses, the virus was not replicating, while it was in non-vaccinated monkeys. Therefore, it cannot spread if it doesn’t replicate.

Take a look at this article:https://apple.news/AzMgiLlznSFeairTOYzP7Jw

Yes I considered this as a possibility earlier while reading the article originally posted here, and the information I've been reading lately about inactive rna present in the noses of those with immunity. It said in the original article 'If this represents infectious virus' referring to the rna found in the noses... This suggested they were not sure at that time that it was active virus rna, and I put 2 and 2 together...

The reason for this is that they took that information from the full report of the tests found here https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.093195v1.full.pdf it's one tiny line hidden among all of the positive results...

the part in question in bold... The part that shows the virus was not replicating in vaccinated monkeys is underlined.

90 Clinical signs Upon challenge with 2.6 x 106
91 TCID50 SARS-CoV-2 to both the upper and lower respiratory
92 tract the average clinical score of control animals was higher compared to ChAdOx1 nCoV-19
93 vaccinated animals. This was significantly different as determined via Mann-Whitney’s rank’s
94 test on 3 and 5 DPI (Figure 3a). All control animals showed an increase in respiratory rate,
95 compared to 3 out of 6 vaccinated animals. Respiratory signs persisted longer in control animals
96 (Extended Data Table 1).
97
98 Viral load in respiratory tract samples
99 In the control animals, viral genomic RNA (gRNA) was detected in BAL fluid on all days and
100 viral subgenomic RNA (sgRNA), indicative of virus replication, was detected at 3 and 5 days
101 post inoculation (DPI). In contrast, viral gRNA was detected in only two animals, either on 3 or
102 7 DPI, and no viral sgRNA could be detected in BAL fluid obtained from vaccinated animals
103 (p=0.0119, Figure 3b). Viral gRNA was detected in nose swabs from all animals and no
104 difference in viral load in nose swabs was found on any days between vaccinated and control
105 animals (Figure 3c).

Sounds positive to me, and they don't seem concerned by the rna found in the noses. Could it even be that they only mentioned this as it proves all monkey's were equally challenged with the virus? If a virus isn't replicating, the host won't be shedding, thus won't be contagious... Or at least that is my limited understanding.

Oh... and Matt was right... All vaccinated monkeys produced covid specific antibodies, unlike the control animals.

75 Virus-specific neutralising antibodies were detectable in all
76 vaccinated animals before challenge (VN titer = 5-40), whereas no virus-specific neutralising
77 antibodies were detected in control animals (Figure 2c).

 

[Professor]

The more you read from around the world including the re-opening of Universal Orlando Resort in about 10 days, the more absurd I think the 14 day quarantine thing is that is supposed to be implemented from that same date in the UK, June 1st. Utterly crazy and how can it be policed?
But whatever. Nothing has been normal this year I guess.
Either it will be scrapped or only last 2-4 weeks surely.

There is no way people will be sat at home and do nothing if infection rates continue to drop just because some politicians want to sound tough.
Nicola Sturgeon suggesting that from next weekend Scots can bbq and play tennis must be living in a different Scotland than where I did. I think I had 1 bbq in about 6 years of living there.

 

[Nicky Borrill]

The more you read from around the world including the re-opening of Universal Orlando Resort in about 10 days, the more absurd I think the 14 day quarantine thing is that is supposed to be implemented from that same date in the UK, June 1st. Utterly crazy and how can it be policed?
But whatever. Nothing has been normal this year I guess.
Either it will be scrapped or only last 2-4 weeks surely.

There is no way people will be sat at home and do nothing if infection rates continue to drop just because some politicians want to sound tough.
Nicola Sturgeon suggesting that from next weekend Scots can bbq and play tennis must be living in a different Scotland than where I did. I think I had 1 bbq in about 6 years of living there.

It is purely a response to the far right social media campaign a few weeks ago to ‘shut our borders’ nothing more nothing less...

OK so I may be exaggerating a little, but there is no sense whatsoever in shutting borders / quarantining with countries that have infection rates similar to or lower than ours... It could be argued that there is good reason to introduce measure with countries where the situation is still developing, but the blanket solution is nuts.

I am tempted to believe that as one of the biggest exporters of tourists in the world, we’re sacrificing our air travel sector to force those tourists to spend here and boost local leisure and hospitality sectors... I haven’t done the maths but it could be that this potentially rebounds our local economies quicker??? Note... Take this last paragraph with a pinch of salt at the moment, there’s nothing more to it than my early morning theorising, but it would be interesting to look at the numbers.

 

[Professor]

It is purely a response to the far right social media campaign a few weeks ago to ‘shut our borders’ nothing more nothing less...

OK so I may be exaggerating a little, but there is no sense whatsoever in shutting borders / quarantining with countries that have infection rates similar to or lower than ours... It could be argued that there is good reason to introduce measure with countries where the situation is still developing, but the blanket solution is nuts.

I am tempted to believe that as one of the biggest exporters of tourists in the world, we’re sacrificing our air travel sector to force those tourists to spend here and boost local leisure and hospitality sectors... I haven’t done the maths but it could be that this potentially rebounds our local economies quicker??? Note... Take this last paragraph with a pinch of salt at the moment, there’s nothing more to it than my early morning theorising, but it would be interesting to look at the numbers.

The press are ramping up the quarantine thing even before it is "made law" it seems, which might be done later today:

Coronavirus: UK arrivals could face £1,000 fines if they break quarantine

I'm not a law expert but when one does get fined is that person not able to get out of paying this by simply quoting articles 13 and 30 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights?:

Article 13
(1) Everyone has the right to freedom of movement and residence within the borders of each state.
(2) Everyone has the right to leave any country, including his own, and to return to his country.

Article 30
Nothing in this Declaration may be interpreted as implying for any State, group or
person any right to engage in any activity or to perform any act aimed at the
destruction of any of the rights and freedoms set forth herein.

https://www.ohchr.org/EN/UDHR/Documents/UDHR_Translations/eng.pdf

 

[Nicky Borrill]

The press are ramping up the quarantine thing even before it is "made law" it seems, which might be done later today:



I'm not a law expert but when one does get fined is that person not able to get out of paying this by simply quoting articles 13 and 30 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights?:

https://www.ohchr.org/EN/UDHR/Documents/UDHR_Translations/eng.pdf

Well spotted, I think you’re right. Also pretty sure that you cannot fine somebody £1000+ unless it can be proven within that persons means in a court of law... None payment of this fine would lead to a court day, and in most cases a reduction or complete quashing of the fine for any person without a significant expendable income.

They were making a HUGE point of the fact that it’ll be reviewed at least every 3 weeks yesterday, maybe they already think it will be adjusted after the first 3 weeks... Once they can say to all the righties “we closed the borders to everyone when it was most needed!” ?

 

[BlueSonicHD]

if the legislation is there to fine people.
you come into the country knowing the law
you then break the law

you dont really have a leg to stand on

the only option would be to try and take a case to the court of human rights and argue the the legislation brought in by the government broke human rights law

very expensive,
just pay the fine
or dont brake the law
or dont get caught ?