Rishi Sunak or Liz Truss; who do you want to be Britain’s next prime minister?
- Thread starter Matt N
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roomraider
Best Topic Starter
Well there goes the left testicle I suppose. As someone who's never voted for the cons and never will it was like watching a champions League final between Portsmouth and Portsmouth's reserves (i'm a Southampton fan 
)
But hey I did enjoy this
)But hey I did enjoy this
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Matt N
CF Legend
It is now strongly suspected that Liz Truss’ government will be freezing energy bills for the next 18 months: https://news.sky.com/story/cost-of-...and-pay-back-difference-over-decades-12691063
In terms of the specifics; it is thought that details will be announced on Thursday, but the rumoured details are that bills could be frozen for 18 months, the cap could be around £2,500 (but would lower to around the current level once the already promised £400 payment comes into effect in October), and could cost up to £130bn (for some perspective, furlough cost £69bn).
It is thought that the government’s spending will be funded primarily by borrowing (or “fiscal loosening” as new Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng calls it) so that the government can live up to the “low tax” reputation that Liz Truss promised during the leadership campaign.
P.S. Mods, is this news OK in this topic, or could we do with a separate “Cost of Living Crisis” topic?
In terms of the specifics; it is thought that details will be announced on Thursday, but the rumoured details are that bills could be frozen for 18 months, the cap could be around £2,500 (but would lower to around the current level once the already promised £400 payment comes into effect in October), and could cost up to £130bn (for some perspective, furlough cost £69bn).
It is thought that the government’s spending will be funded primarily by borrowing (or “fiscal loosening” as new Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng calls it) so that the government can live up to the “low tax” reputation that Liz Truss promised during the leadership campaign.
P.S. Mods, is this news OK in this topic, or could we do with a separate “Cost of Living Crisis” topic?
MackMan
Mega Poster
Freezing bills would be a great help, but i do wonder if Truss is digging herself a money shaped hole here? She seems to be not interested at all in renewable energy or insulating homes. Both of these would be good long-haul solutions.
Things like investing a ton of money into insulating homes and making our homes more energy-efficient or investing into nuclear or renewable energy seems like some kind of foreign language for Truss- this is worrying. You can help us with care packages and feezing bills, but what about next year? Or the year after?
Russia have made it clear that this is no Georgia or chechnya- this is a long more than likely multi-year war that is not something we can simply just 'wait out'.
Like some of the other European powers, we need long term solutions- giving a care package and paying off the gas companies every year is just going to make our debt worse.
This actually was a criticism thrown at Truss in the last few weeks- with low tax and all these things she wants to deliver, who is paying for it? I am intruiged.
Matt N
CF Legend
She says that we will pay for it through borrowing. She said in her inaugural speech as PM that she has a radical plan to stimulate economic growth that will allow us to pay off our debt and keep those low taxes she keeps promising.
Promisingly, she also said that she was announcing plans to boost Britain’s long term energy reserves.
MackMan
Mega Poster
Truss though has said multiple times her ways of boosting 'energy reserves' is basically remove red tape on fracking- this is not a long term solution.
And i have to admit i am a skeptic- like it would be amazing if it was true. But her 'plan' has no details at all. Stimulating growth is going to be a long process, and will take plenty of initiatives- cutting tax is not one.
Nicky Borrill
Strata Poster
Yeh fracking is not green or renewable.
However it looks like medium term solutions are needed though, as it looks to be late 2020s early 30s before we'll be completing large scale renewable projects. At this stage, and I cannot believe I'm saying this, but I don't think it would be a terrible idea to temporarily recommission disused coal fired plants! Surely the 4 that have closed in the last 3 years wouldn't require too much work to get going again, assuming they're still standing.
However it looks like medium term solutions are needed though, as it looks to be late 2020s early 30s before we'll be completing large scale renewable projects. At this stage, and I cannot believe I'm saying this, but I don't think it would be a terrible idea to temporarily recommission disused coal fired plants! Surely the 4 that have closed in the last 3 years wouldn't require too much work to get going again, assuming they're still standing.
roomraider
Best Topic Starter
The cost of coal has gone through the roof like everything else. Now I'm not sure how this effects the operational aspects of a Coal power station but in 2020 coal was around $50 US per tonne its now overing around $450 US. That has to affect the cost/benefit analysis quite a bit.
roomraider
Best Topic Starter
Sorry for the double post but spent the last hour just looking at some things on my CV and checking things out to see how things have progressed to get an idea if red tape is a real issue in the UK.
Ready for some really boring and indepth crap about offshore wind? If not you might want to skip this post.
For those who don't know i do a lot of work in the offshore renewables industry and have previously worked a lot selling my soul in the Norwegian and UK oil industries, so I thought it would be interesting to see how projects I've worked on over the years in various countries have progressed.
Quite an early job of mine was the 2010 survey for the UK's Dogger Bank wind farm which when finished should be the worlds largest ever offshore windfarm (hooray for us) However to make the site more managable it was broken down into different Tranches, Tranche A was the first to be surveyed and will be the first to be built.
Looking it up the first turbines will currently begin to be installed in the A Tranche in 2023.
So from survey to installation thats a quite surprising 13 year gap.
Taking a look at the world leaders in offshore wind Denmark.
I did the survey for a Danish Wind Farm on the west coast in late 2012 and early 2013
That entire windfarm was fully finished and commisioned in 2019
So they went from survey to fully installed and operating in at most 7 years.
In 2016 i also did a survey for the Kriegers Flak Windfarm on the west coast of Denmark.
That windfarm became operational by the end of 2021.
A ridiculously short 5 years from survey to operation.
Now I'm not partial to all the tiny things and bit of red tape that go on behind the scenes and i dont have a huge sample size. But it seems to me when a wind farm in the UK takes more than twice the time to even get to the building stage in the UK as it does in Denmark to get finished and operational theres certainly something going on that could be improved.
Each countries laws and rules are different for sure. (Working on offshore windfarm projects in Denmark for example has the nice bonus that I don't have to pay tax on those earnings thanks to Incenstives set up by the Danish government
)
And I know that Dogger Bank had to contend with the extra issues of Iron Age archeological finds (The Dogger Bank was above water during the last mini ice age and connected the UK to the continent) but it seems to me there is certainly some red tape in the way somewhere.
But it has been that way for many many years and working in the energy industry as much as i do its hard not to feel that as a country we have mismanaged our energy industry for decades. Denmark took the lead in Offshore wind early and prioritised it (Theres a reason Danish firm Vestas is the world leader in turbine manafacturing). They now sometimes produce more windpower than the entire country needs and sell the rest off to Europe.
You could say the same about Norway and its Oil Reserves. Statoil (now Equinor) is the state run oil company that runs almost all Norways oil rigs and pipelines. What did Norway do with all that oil money? Well they created the “Oil Fund” which was set up to be a sort of national “piggybank” for use in bad times and future generations. This is one of the main reasons Norway is so well off and has such a high standard of living. (despite the fact a pint costs like £12 these days) , What we did was hawk all our oil reserves off to private companies like Shell and BP.
This all happened under a number of different governments so I'm not making it a wholly political discussion in favour of either Red or Blue but In my opinion at least part of our current energy crisis is down to years of mismanagement and red tape.
Ready for some really boring and indepth crap about offshore wind? If not you might want to skip this post.
For those who don't know i do a lot of work in the offshore renewables industry and have previously worked a lot selling my soul in the Norwegian and UK oil industries, so I thought it would be interesting to see how projects I've worked on over the years in various countries have progressed.
Quite an early job of mine was the 2010 survey for the UK's Dogger Bank wind farm which when finished should be the worlds largest ever offshore windfarm (hooray for us) However to make the site more managable it was broken down into different Tranches, Tranche A was the first to be surveyed and will be the first to be built.
Looking it up the first turbines will currently begin to be installed in the A Tranche in 2023.
So from survey to installation thats a quite surprising 13 year gap.
Taking a look at the world leaders in offshore wind Denmark.
I did the survey for a Danish Wind Farm on the west coast in late 2012 and early 2013
That entire windfarm was fully finished and commisioned in 2019
So they went from survey to fully installed and operating in at most 7 years.
In 2016 i also did a survey for the Kriegers Flak Windfarm on the west coast of Denmark.
That windfarm became operational by the end of 2021.
A ridiculously short 5 years from survey to operation.
Now I'm not partial to all the tiny things and bit of red tape that go on behind the scenes and i dont have a huge sample size. But it seems to me when a wind farm in the UK takes more than twice the time to even get to the building stage in the UK as it does in Denmark to get finished and operational theres certainly something going on that could be improved.
Each countries laws and rules are different for sure. (Working on offshore windfarm projects in Denmark for example has the nice bonus that I don't have to pay tax on those earnings thanks to Incenstives set up by the Danish government
)And I know that Dogger Bank had to contend with the extra issues of Iron Age archeological finds (The Dogger Bank was above water during the last mini ice age and connected the UK to the continent) but it seems to me there is certainly some red tape in the way somewhere.
But it has been that way for many many years and working in the energy industry as much as i do its hard not to feel that as a country we have mismanaged our energy industry for decades. Denmark took the lead in Offshore wind early and prioritised it (Theres a reason Danish firm Vestas is the world leader in turbine manafacturing). They now sometimes produce more windpower than the entire country needs and sell the rest off to Europe.
You could say the same about Norway and its Oil Reserves. Statoil (now Equinor) is the state run oil company that runs almost all Norways oil rigs and pipelines. What did Norway do with all that oil money? Well they created the “Oil Fund” which was set up to be a sort of national “piggybank” for use in bad times and future generations. This is one of the main reasons Norway is so well off and has such a high standard of living. (despite the fact a pint costs like £12 these days) , What we did was hawk all our oil reserves off to private companies like Shell and BP.
This all happened under a number of different governments so I'm not making it a wholly political discussion in favour of either Red or Blue but In my opinion at least part of our current energy crisis is down to years of mismanagement and red tape.
Christian
Hyper Poster
Borrowing isn't such a bad thing if well managed. Truss could through loans stimulate the economy through for example infrastructure. Especially energy infrastructure would be a brilliant thing to invest in right now. Sadly, most politicians just prefer borrowing money and then giving it away. Raising the national debt without real economic growth is stupid.
Had a professor not to long ago professing to me how Europe needs a lot more well spent government debt if we ever want to achieve real economic growth.
Lori Marie Loud
Giga Poster
Welp that flew like a lead balloon
news.yahoo.com
So - Who do you want to be Britain's new next prime minister?
What to know about British Prime Minister Liz Truss’s resignation and what’s next for the U.K.
After weeks of political and economic turmoil in the U.K., Prime Minister Liz Truss ultimately decided Thursday to leave No. 10 Downing St. In her six weeks in office, she oversaw the state funeral for Queen Elizabeth II and overturned a national ban on fracking.
So - Who do you want to be Britain's new next prime minister?
Matt N
CF Legend
I must say, I did not expect such a quick resurrection of this topic of discussion... when she was elected, I thought that Liz Truss would at very least last to the next election, due in 2024.
Of the likely candidates within the Conservative Party, I wouldn't be averse to Rishi Sunak myself; he seems to me like a relative steadying hand, and someone you can trust. I also wouldn't be against Penny Mordaunt for similar reasons. To be honest, though, I'm sure most of them would be perfectly good candidates, even if my personal preference leans toward a more moderate/centrist Conservative.
I wouldn't be averse to a General Election before too long, though... things have changed a lot since 2019, and even putting that aside, the Conservative Party is now deviating quite significantly from Boris Johnson's 2019 manifesto, which the party was elected on. Therefore, I'd argue that the right thing to do would be to go back to the people and request a new mandate for their new policy. Unless, of course, Boris Johnson, the man with the mandate, makes a triumphant return...
Although I must admit that a small part of my lust for a GE comes from the fact that I recently joined the Forest of Dean Electoral Register and am looking forward to casting my first vote!
Of the likely candidates within the Conservative Party, I wouldn't be averse to Rishi Sunak myself; he seems to me like a relative steadying hand, and someone you can trust. I also wouldn't be against Penny Mordaunt for similar reasons. To be honest, though, I'm sure most of them would be perfectly good candidates, even if my personal preference leans toward a more moderate/centrist Conservative.
I wouldn't be averse to a General Election before too long, though... things have changed a lot since 2019, and even putting that aside, the Conservative Party is now deviating quite significantly from Boris Johnson's 2019 manifesto, which the party was elected on. Therefore, I'd argue that the right thing to do would be to go back to the people and request a new mandate for their new policy. Unless, of course, Boris Johnson, the man with the mandate, makes a triumphant return...
Although I must admit that a small part of my lust for a GE comes from the fact that I recently joined the Forest of Dean Electoral Register and am looking forward to casting my first vote!
EmmaUK
Mega Poster
I agree with most things you say Matt but not on this one. Most would not be “perfectly good candidates”. Most would not be anything like even mediocre candidates. They’re a terrible bunch of chancers, liars, intellectually dishonest charlatans. And worse of all any of them with even a modicum of long term ambition knows they’re out the next general election so won’t stand. We’re about to get the very definition of a stop gap leader, leading a weak government and a split party which doesn’t know which direction it wants to go on anything including, increasingly damagingly, Brexit
MackMan
Mega Poster
I think we all lust for a GE to be honest. I honestly do not think any tory candidate can dig themselves out of this mess- a GE needs to be called, at least then if they stay in power, they will have the people behind them. Right now, it seems they are losing popularity at a rapid pace, and Labour is forecasted to win by a landslide with current polls.
I think it just looks messy- i honestly do not usually bash the tory party, i actually liked May! But recently they have just been digging and digging. Boris and co basically bullied May and basically undermined her to the point to which she had to resign on the stance he could do better- he couldn't. Then he broke a bunch of rules his government set, and lied about it, before then confessing that he did it and lied about it. This was a host of scandals on numerous occasions revolving breaking covid rules, and using Downing Street as a place to host cheese and wine parties while the public isolate. They did a huge drawn out campaign after Boris finally gave in, after months of being a joke. We finally get a new leader, and she casues a finicial crisis in her first month- then swiftly resigns.. The Conservative party truly is skating on a bunch of rapidly falling ice, i think this spells the end of their monoply on GE. People want stability, the tories have just been providing chaos since 2019- the party cannot even seem to agree on most things anyway, it is divided, and dysfunctional.
A general election should follow, otherwise i believe the people will be angry
Nicky Borrill
Strata Poster
Rishi it is then...
How many days do we give him before he is forced to call a GE?
How many days do we give him before he is forced to call a GE?
DelPiero
Strata Poster
Turkeys don't vote for Christmas mate.
This rag tag government are an absolute shambles, the majority of the MPs are self serving and will attempt to limp on without actually doing anything to help the electorate, just so they have a job for the next 2 years. They've tanked the economy, cut all public sector services to the bone, handed massive windfalls to their mates, put in place legislation allowing the top 1% to get richer while everyone else suffers and put massive amounts of debt on us and generations to come.
The only way we get a GE is if people take to the streets, but we won't, there isn't the appetite for it yet, maybe once mortgage rates are 10% we will see the anger turn to protests.
Nicky Borrill
Strata Poster
I really wish you were wrong... But that about sums things up as perfectly as can be.
Oh well... I wasn't born for the 1st winter of discontent... So at least I can add experiencing the second one to my life's achievements...
I expect this government will limp along and recover substantially on opinion polls before the next election.
I think it will take even more shambles in the lead up to the election for the conservatives to be ousted, if we aren’t having an election now. The noise of life will keep people from remembering how bad they have been this year.
I was at the pub recently and chatting with a bunch of people who were very vocally opposed to the conservatives. I expressed that I had become incapable of supporting the party since their super-ominous ‘proroguing of parliament’…. and despite how anti-conservative they were, not one of them could remember the details of what happened. I’ve never heavily aligned myself for or against any political party, but I remain offended by that to this day. It was the death of UK politics - even worse than the mini-budget fiasco.
More details here - be warned it may make you feel ill.
en.m.wikipedia.org
Edit: sorry, I had a similar rant on this forum earlier in the year. Seems that I have a short memory too.
I think it will take even more shambles in the lead up to the election for the conservatives to be ousted, if we aren’t having an election now. The noise of life will keep people from remembering how bad they have been this year.
I was at the pub recently and chatting with a bunch of people who were very vocally opposed to the conservatives. I expressed that I had become incapable of supporting the party since their super-ominous ‘proroguing of parliament’…. and despite how anti-conservative they were, not one of them could remember the details of what happened. I’ve never heavily aligned myself for or against any political party, but I remain offended by that to this day. It was the death of UK politics - even worse than the mini-budget fiasco.
More details here - be warned it may make you feel ill.
2019 United Kingdom prorogation controversy - Wikipedia
Edit: sorry, I had a similar rant on this forum earlier in the year. Seems that I have a short memory too.
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Nicky Borrill
Strata Poster
I remember it well, and I also remember your rant too.I expect this government will limp along and recover substantially on opinion polls before the next election.
I think it will take even more shambles in the lead up to the election for the conservatives to be ousted, if we aren’t having an election now. The noise of life will keep people from remembering how bad they have been this year.
I was at the pub recently and chatting with a bunch of people who were very vocally opposed to the conservatives. I expressed that I had become incapable of supporting the party since their super-ominous ‘proroguing of parliament’…. and despite how anti-conservative they were, not one of them could remember the details of what happened. I’ve never heavily aligned myself for or against any political party, but I remain offended by that to this day. It was the death of UK politics - even worse than the mini-budget fiasco.
More details here - be warned it may make you feel ill.
2019 United Kingdom prorogation controversy - Wikipedia
Edit: sorry, I had a similar rant on this forum earlier in the year. Seems that I have a short memory too.
To be fair, I don't remember there being as much of an uproar at the time as there should have been, given the significance. Not when you compare it to things like party-gate. Almost like people didn't fully understand the significance of it at the time or since. I mean, obviously it was contested in court, and found to be unlawful, but the media and public didn't latch onto it like they later did with Partygate or even with D.C's Durham trip.