UK General Election 4th July 2024

[Chris Brown]

I'll be voting labour. I'm a lefty through and through and whilst its sad to see the current labour crop heading much more centrist there's still a bit of me that hopes it's just a strategy to appease the masses pre election, and they'll move back to the left once in power. Starting to doubt that mind! I dont think it'll be the landslide people are imagining. People underestimate just how high the GP regard immigration policies. Labour haven't done enough to attract votes in that area, Reform will win a lot of votes on that issue alone. I Imagine they'll take a good chunk of the tories 'hard right' voters.

I've always been tempted by Greens, but dont like their stance on Immigration.

 

[Matt N]

I've always been tempted by Greens, but dont like their stance on Immigration.

Out of interest, what is the Green Party's stance on immigration?

I think Labour are mainly toeing the government line on immigration aside from the scrappage of the Rwanda policy. It's been said that they're trying to adopt a "Ming vase" strategy of announcing the fewest radical policies possible to try and get 2019 Tory voters on side.

I do wonder if immigration is the big problem that the Tory party make it out to be, and I don't personally see it as a key issue I'm looking for a solution to from this election. However, a lot of voters, rightly or wrongly, clearly disagree.

My local Tory MP put a video on Facebook the other day saying that "stopping the small boats" was one of the key issues coming up on doorsteps in the Forest of Dean. Even though this area's population was logged as 98% white at the last census and we're a good few hours away from the key border processing places like Folkestone and Dover, immigration clearly matters to a not insignificant percentage of the populace.

 

[Dar]

My local Tory MP put a video on Facebook the other day saying that "stopping the small boats" was one of the key issues coming up on doorsteps in the Forest of Dean. Even though this area's population was logged as 98% white at the last census

When I lived in Pickering, immigration was big news, "they're coming over here and taking our jerbs" etc. when the only non-white people were the family running the Chinese restaurant, and they've been there for decades. Most of the people I know have never been further than Malton, York at a push, and mostly work manual jobs for a pittance because they're stuck in the Yorkshire mindset that you should be grateful to have a job, nevermind get paid for it. They've never met a minority, or an immigrant, and only go off what the S*n tells them. So they think the immigrants are coming for them next!!1!

What really baffles me is the farmers there bang on about the 70s and labour, while also crying about losing their welfa-sorry, losing their subsidies, which is entirely the fault of the Tories!

 

[Chris Brown]

Out of interest, what is the Green Party's stance on immigration?

I think Labour are mainly toeing the government line on immigration aside from the scrappage of the Rwanda policy. It's been said that they're trying to adopt a "Ming vase" strategy of announcing the fewest radical policies possible to try and get 2019 Tory voters on side.

I do wonder if immigration is the big problem that the Tory party make it out to be, and I don't personally see it as a key issue I'm looking for a solution to from this election. However, a lot of voters, rightly or wrongly, clearly disagree.

My local Tory MP put a video on Facebook the other day saying that "stopping the small boats" was one of the key issues coming up on doorsteps in the Forest of Dean. Even though this area's population was logged as 98% white at the last census and we're a good few hours away from the key border processing places like Folkestone and Dover, immigration clearly matters to a not insignificant percentage of the populace.

Taken from the Green Party website -

'The Green Party wants to see a world without borders, until this happens the Green Party will implement a fair and humane system of managed immigration where people can move if they wish to do so'

'To build a world in which no one needs to seek asylum. Many Green Party policies aim to address the underlying conditions that lead people to seek protection'

Great in principal but just not realistic in my opinion. I dont think the Greens are equipped enough to level the economic playing field of the entire earth nor solve every ongoing conflict required to satisfy the entire human race to not want to migrate or seek asylum.

Fully agree that Tories inflate the small boats narrative, their mantra has for years been to 'manufacture' a problem and then insist that they are the only party able to provide a solution to said problem. The small boats, in my opinion, are the product of a deliberately bad UK Asylum process.

On the flip side and to appease those that are anti immigration - the census data for the UK has shown that from 2001 the UK was 87.5% white British, in 2021 we are 74.4% white British.

 

[Nicky Borrill]

The problem is, and it's a catch 22 this, people 'think' Labour will win by a landslide. A lot of people who didn't vote in Brexit, didn't vote because they thought remain would win by a landslide, Boris had made leave into a laughing stock... Remember, Tory voters will not be admitting to the polls that they'll be voting Tory, just like with Brexit, so their actual vote share will be much much higher than the polls suggest.

So with every voter that doesn't want a conservative government, but votes anywhere other than Labour, Conservative have more of a shot of staying in power, because the anti tory vote gets split. There just isn't enough support for any of the 'other' parties to mount a serious challenge for government.

However, if we only ever vote one of two ways in these elections, then how the hell is anything ever going to change? It's not.

That's the catch 22 tough decision that most of us are faced with. It sucks, it really does... But I'm mostly worried that, with all of these decent looking alternatives, green, reform etc that the anti tory vote is going to be split, and that they may cling onto power by the skin of their teeth... That's why I'm voting Labour.

On the other hand, these alternative options give traditional tory voters a way of expressing their disappointment with the current Tory party, without having to consider the one party they'd never vote for, so maybe the Tory vote gets split too... We can only hope.

(P.s for the record I would never vote reform personally, not a chance in hell. They want to leave the European Convention on Human Rights, and still continue with the Rwanda plan.)

 

[Sandman]

I would be shocked if the Tories won this election. I wasn't shocked by Brexit to be honest. Up here in the north, and in numerous working class towns, you could sense the confidence people had in the Leave campaign. I think it was mainly the London bubble, press, etc that 'scoffed' at the notion of a Leave win. It seemed so far removed from their reality.

This election is rather different. I think there's unanimous agreement across all demographics, that the Tories are walking into a slaughter. Labour may not get the massive landslide predicted (though it is likely), but I think we can be confident that the Tories will not be in government very soon.

 

[MackMan]

I’m pretty confident in Labour winning.
I think the right wing division of the tories are the split off (Reform) which means a lot of vote sharing. I think reform is even polling higher than the tories now. The conservatives are flopping hard

 

[Nicky Borrill]

If you've got an hour spare... Give this a watch...

If you don't have an hour, at least watch this...

 

[Will]

*disclaimer - I'm far too lazy to read most of the posts and I've got football on in the background*

Social media (or 'X' and the even more gross 'Threads') are a sea of 'SUNAK OUT NOW' etc.
Quite frankly, I don't think we'll even make it to Christmas before that goes 360. That's not to say I think people will be crying out to bring the Tories back (2020 was recent enough that hopefully not many have forgiven them) but, excluding that woman who was in number 10 for about a week, I can see him being the least popular PM in my living memory. I do not trust the man further than I could throw him.

Like I've said before, he's got my vote, but it's with a VERY heavy heart combined with the fact that I've apparently got enough of a shred of a social conscience to have a healthy fear of the Reform party, who, I predict, are going to do a lot better than many are expecting.

It upsets me slightly that Corbyn was around at the wrong time - though even he's gone a little bit nutty these days.

Additional: More in hope that anticipation, I checked out the manifesto of one of the independent candidates. The word 'democracy' was misspelled.

 

[Ollie]

I'll be voting tactically to get the Tories out. Hoping for a Labour win overall.
Trying to not get my hopes up too high as I'm used to being disappointed by voting results. Hopefully those that usually vote Conservative have finally experienced one too many cock ups and scandals from the party. Even now, leading up to the next election this betting scandal is coming out from within the party.

If Labour do win though they're going to have a lot of mess to clear up left over by the Tories. It won't be easy. While there's no doubt they may also do a bad job leading the country. It cant get any worse can it...?

 

[Tonkso]

Keir Starmer is likely to be the U.K.'s next Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is widely expected to become the UK's next Prime Minister after July's parliamentary election.

Well, yes, but you're definitely an AI and I claim my £5.

 

[Rob Coasters]

Just voted libdems.

Labour lost me when they said one thing: "we are on the side of drivers". I knew I couldn't vote for them when they said that.

I don't drive. For me, that's basically them saying "we are not on your side, we do not care about you". Why not aim to be inclusive towards everyone?

 

[Nicky Borrill]

Just voted libdems.

Labour lost me when they said one thing: "we are on the side of drivers". I knew I couldn't vote for them when they said that.

I don't drive. For me, that's basically them saying "we are not on your side, we do not care about you". Why not aim to be inclusive towards everyone?

I mean, they were referring to fixing the countries roads, whether you drive or use public transport that affects you in a positive way.

They can be on the side of drivers, and public transport users, it's not an exclusive statement.

 

[JoshC.]

I spoilt my ballot.

I'm disillusioned with the broken system.

Any election I've taken part in I've lived in one of two constituencies. They've both been Tory-held since their inception (bar the couple of months that Philip Hammond technically became independent). My current constituency has been Tory since 1950. Before then, it had been Tory from 1918-1945, and the only reason it blipped to a Labour hold was because the borders of the constituency changed drastically for that election.

Sure, there's tactical voting. But on at least one occasion, more than 50% of the electorate voted Tory. Tactical voting would mean nothing. And even then, would an increase in tactical voters also increase the number of non-voters who would choose Tory?

Also, the local campaigners for Labour (the Tactical Vote of choice) have effectively gone down the route of "Vote us if you want the Tories out". No "We want to do x, y, z", just 'We're better than the bottom of the barrell'. Hardly reassuring.
Starmer's recent comments regarding trans people as well were not reassuring to me.

Sure, I could vote another party. But then my vote is wasted thanks to the First Past the Post system. Simply doesn't matter. On a broader scale, the Lib Dems leader seems like a nice bloke, but it feels like he's playing the 'Boris Johnson fool' card to get people to like him. And I didn't see anything from my local Lib Dem representative.

I'll always exercise my right to vote, as having that is a powerful thing. And I don't expect change to happen overnight, of course not. But the whole system is broken right now, and the only way I can show that is my spoiling my ballot.

 

[Nicky Borrill]

I spoilt my ballot.

I'm disillusioned with the broken system.

Any election I've taken part in I've lived in one of two constituencies. They've both been Tory-held since their inception (bar the couple of months that Philip Hammond technically became independent). My current constituency has been Tory since 1950. Before then, it had been Tory from 1918-1945, and the only reason it blipped to a Labour hold was because the borders of the constituency changed drastically for that election.

Sure, there's tactical voting. But on at least one occasion, more than 50% of the electorate voted Tory. Tactical voting would mean nothing. And even then, would an increase in tactical voters also increase the number of non-voters who would choose Tory?

Also, the local campaigners for Labour (the Tactical Vote of choice) have effectively gone down the route of "Vote us if you want the Tories out". No "We want to do x, y, z", just 'We're better than the bottom of the barrell'. Hardly reassuring.
Starmer's recent comments regarding trans people as well were not reassuring to me.

Sure, I could vote another party. But then my vote is wasted thanks to the First Past the Post system. Simply doesn't matter. On a broader scale, the Lib Dems leader seems like a nice bloke, but it feels like he's playing the 'Boris Johnson fool' card to get people to like him. And I didn't see anything from my local Lib Dem representative.

I'll always exercise my right to vote, as having that is a powerful thing. And I don't expect change to happen overnight, of course not. But the whole system is broken right now, and the only way I can show that is my spoiling my ballot.

At least you went and said 'something...'

Be careful with 'how' you spoil your votes though, because a dishonest returning officer has the ability to count it as a vote for a particular party by claiming 'your intentions were clear.'

Hopefully you wrote 'First past the post doesn't work' on the back or something?

 

[Matt N]

I voted Labour. I like what Labour stands for, I like some of what Starmer has said about his goals for government, and in my seat, they’re also by far the best bet at getting the Tories out, despite the Greens also claiming to be “the tactical vote”!

I’m interested to see how the result goes in my constituency. It’s a very safe Tory seat, with the Conservatives getting 60% of the vote in 2019 and having inhabited the seat since 2005, but numerous polls are indicating that it could go to Labour this time. There’s a fair chance that the Tory incumbent could hold it, however… the Forest of Dean is not as much of a sure bet for Labour as the rest of the country, by any stretch!

 

[Nicky Borrill]

I voted Labour. I like what Labour stands for, I like some of what Starmer has said about his goals for government, and in my seat, they’re also by far the best bet at getting the Tories out, despite the Greens also claiming to be “the tactical vote”!

I’m interested to see how the result goes in my constituency. It’s a very safe Tory seat, with the Conservatives getting 60% of the vote in 2019 and having inhabited the seat since 2005, but numerous polls are indicating that it could go to Labour this time. There’s a fair chance that the Tory incumbent could hold it, however… the Forest of Dean is not as much of a sure bet for Labour as the rest of the country, by any stretch!

Nowhere is as sure as the polls suggest... By the polls own admission the massive majority of 'undecided' are traditional Tory voters...

 

[JoshC.]

At least you went and said 'something...'

Be careful with 'how' you spoil your votes though, because a dishonest returning officer has the ability to count it as a vote for a particular party by claiming 'your intentions were clear.'

Hopefully you wrote 'First past the post doesn't work' on the back or something?

Hopefully my intention was clear enough

 

[Matt N]

The exit poll has come out… and it predicts a Labour landslide.

The exit poll results are:

• Labour: 410
• Conservatives: 131
• Liberal Democrats: 61
• Reform UK: 13
• Scottish National Party: 10
• Plaid Cymru: 4
• Green Party: 2
• Other: 19

So in summary, then, the Labour landslide is looking quite similar to the more conservative poll predictions, and the Conservative annihilation has also seemingly outweighed 1997 as predicted.

I must admit, however, that I’m shocked by how well Reform has supposedly done… 13 seats is way beyond what I had ever expected for Reform. I was expecting 1, maybe 2 or 3 at best for Reform… if the exit poll is vaguely accurate, then I have to admit that Reform have done spectacularly well!

The SNP have also been absolutely annihilated according to the exit poll… I’m getting Lib Dem 2015 vibes from their result.

 

[Nicky Borrill]

This result looks to top off an incredible couple of weeks for me, after an incredible Glasto... Only one thing left to say...

P.s, this was 2022 (I was there then too) but he also played this year, so it kind of counts. (I didn't go see him this year.)