Great way of putting it Smithy! I agree 100%.
The reason the media kept pointing out Thorpe and Chessie is because they had rides closed - so whilst I'll agree that both of those and most notably Alton are going to have the largest cuts in attendance post-Smiler, how much of that is down to public awareness that attractions are closed?
I would predict that annual pass attendance is up, not down. The kind of people who get annual passes are going to be shocked and interested in the Smiler accident, but not put off going. Well, the majority of. I bet some people demanded refunds, but I'd guess the majority have caught on that the parks are quieter and usual and are making the most of it.
I'd also bet that Blackpool and similar parks have been hit hard. Blackpool has a public perception issue regarding it's H&S anyway.